Market Insight

Mortgage Rates & Market News                                           June 16,2023  Mortgage Rates                  note rate / annual percentage rate  30 YR FIXED FHA 5.125% 6.617%   30 YR FIXED VA 5.125% 5.463%   30 YR FIXED Conventional 5.500% 5.724%   15 YR FIXED Conventional 4.750% 5.127%   30 YR FIXED Investment 5.875% 6.169%  30 YR FIXED USDA RD (Guaranteed) 5.125% 5.731%   5/6 ARM (5 YR Fixed Period) 6.375% 7.198%   30 YR FIXED HomePath 5.750% 6.302%   30 YR FIXED JUMBO 6.250% 6.414% Trusted experts for your mortgage needs.    Apply online at TSTFinancial.com Thurl J. Quigley 970.222.0816 | Fax 866.351.9497 NMLS #326147 CO Lic #100010865 Thurl@TSTFinancial.com Find useful daily updates on Twitter Market News Friday's bond market is in negative territory following stronger than expected economic news. Stocks are negative with the Dow down 42, S&P 500 down 9 and the Nasdaq down 75. The bond market is currently down 13/32 (3.775%), which should erase yesterday's late rally and cause today’s mortgage rates to be higher by approximately .125 of a discount point. This morning's sole relevant economic release was the University of Michigan's preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment for June at 8:00 AM MDT. They announced a reading of 63.9 that exceeded forecasts of 60.0 and was higher than May's 59.2. The increase means surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial situations than they did last month. Rising confidence is believed to lead to higher levels of consumer spending that fuel economic growth. Therefore, we have to consider the report bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. Next week's calendar is pretty light in terms of economic reports, but has several other events scheduled that may be influential to rates. The week starts with the markets closed for the Juneteenth Holiday Monday and closes with nothing scheduled that is relevant to mortgage pricing Friday. There is no early close today, ahead of the holiday. In between those two days, there are a few things that will draw plenty of attention in the markets. The semi-annual Fed testimony before Congress is Wednesday and Thursday morning. The Fed has scheduled speaking engagements by members, now that the FOMC meeting is behind us. We also have a Treasury auction midweek that could affect afternoon trading one day. Please feel free to contact me directly at 970-222-0816 or by email at thurl@tstfinancial.com with any questions and mortgage scenarios.  Same-day mortgage approvals, evenings and weekends too!  To access our rates online, visit  www.TSTFinancial.com/AgentRates.  I look forward to hearing from you soon ...
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- If you are planning on not attending let me know so that I can adjust the food count. 970-691-7669 DATE: Mid-season BBQ: June 10th - 1:00 pm- till dusk. LOCATION: 800 Grouse Circle Fort Collins, 80524. We encourage biking or parking in the park at Greenbriar and walking across the greens. Please Bring a lawn chair. FOOD: Brisket, Pulled Pork, Brats, Burgers, Corn and many, many, many sides. (veggie options will be available) ENTERTAINMENT: We will have $250 in prizes for various Golf challenges as well as cornhole, polish shoes, horseshoes, bocce and more! If you have a favorite yard game please bring it. I will have 2 babysitters so that the parents in the league can attend and bring their kids.  I am planning on 250 people and will have plenty of beer options available. If you require any liquor drink please bring your own. Additional family or friends are encouraged. LEAGUE STUFF: League Polo and standings will be available at the BBQ ...
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Attention Small Business Owners! ...
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Northern Colorado has more and more inventory every day! Summer buying season has begun- List your home asap ...
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Holler at you boy ...
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https://bbemaildelivery.com/bbext/?p=video_land&id=c3bc3139-1d26-4fb6-947f-fbb273e15f5a ...
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Lots of good ideas for these trusted mortgage brokers Adjustable rate Here is an action plan from my friends at Cornerstone Mortgage.

• Initial lower loan payments.
• Fixed rate for 3-7 years. Lower than current rates. averaging 2-3% points lower
• Rate can adjust but only a certain amount based on the index rate.
• Mortgage payments can go up or down during the adjustment period.
• Ideal for buyers who are looking to own a home for short term.
• Saves you thousand in interest.

Kyle McCormick • Senior Loan Officer (970) 226-2992 • kmccormick@houseloan.com Website NMLS: #283253 2-1 rate buy-down Here is an action plan from my friends at Excel Financial. Basically, from payments 1-12 months you are starting off at a rate 2% below current market rate. Then, at payments 13-24 months you will be at 1% below where you locked in before going to the full rate in months 24-360. This is not buying the rate down; the sellers are pre-paying the first 2 yrs of payments with seller concessions into an escrow account. The beauty is, if you refinance or sell before your 2 yrs is up, you don’t lose that money. It goes towards the payoff of that loan making the payoff less. Our thought in the industry is that we are going to see rates drop in the next 2 yrs so you will see another refi boom. 2-1 Buydown Program Colorado Mortgage Broker | Team Paz @ Excel Mortgage Brokers (comortgageman.com) Max Seller contributions

• Interest Rates – Right now borrowers need to pay to lock in a rate.  There are no “par” rates available so we’re really pushing for seller concessions to help buy down the rate.  Also, because of fees and tolerance guidelines borrowers are only allowed to buy down the rate by 3%.  However, if the seller is offering 4% in seller concessions that entire 4% can be used to buy down the rate.  Seller concessions towards closing costs do NOT count towards the fees and tolerance rules we need to follow
• .Joe Whitlock link

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I just received some very exciting news from one of my credit specialists, and needed to share as I know numerous buyers that are going to benefit from this: From Molly Kincaid   “All three of the credit reporting agencies have agreed, as part of a legal settlement, to remove all paid medical collections after July 1st. the decision from the credit reporting bureaus applies to all paid medical collections. It is part of a settlement on a lawsuit, I believe from the state of New York, against the three credit reporting agencies and will be effective July 1st and following. There has actually been legislation percolating in the legislature on how paid medical collections affect credit scores for a while now, so this is not a terribly big surprise, but, as you can imagine, the reporting agencies have been fighting against it. So their concession as part of that lawsuit is certainly significant. Lots of paid medical collection tradelines out there and a lot of credit scores will increase.   Also, buyers shouldn’t have to dispute these accounts since this is a decision on the part of the credit reporting agencies themselves. However, if your buyer continues to see those types of tradelines reporting, they most certainly can dispute them.” ...
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It's the Catalina Wine Mixer- Sunday, June 5th If you cannot attend let me know- I will be preapring for 250+ people and hate wasting food! Bring the family or friend

• 800 Grouse Circle, Fort Collins 80524
• 1:00 pm - dusk
• 3x $50 prizes for golfer's challenges
• beers, brats, smoked pig, veggie patties and more!
• canned beers, N.B. keg
• all the yard games
• Bring the family-babysitters are availible for your children
• get your league shirt and 1st look at league rankings
• meet all the other golfers

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The Fed has expressed their plans for normalization, or the continued reduction in bond buying activities. This means rates will continue to rise. Rates are already >5.5%, and these behaviors should push them even higher. The Fed will release its policy statement tomorrow at 12pm. Please check in with your buyers if they have not revisited their preapproval. Here is a short and super informative update on our markets: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05022022 ...
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I wanted to give everyone a quick update on this crazy interest rate environment we are in right now, which rates have risen so quickly that we haven’t seen anything like this since 1994 (over 28 years).  Get approved get locked asap ...
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• Last week, the 30-year fixed rate increased 11 basis points to 3.22% per the most recent Primary Mortgage Market Survey from Freddie Mac. This marks the highest level since May 2020, and more than half a percent higher than January 2021. With higher inflation, promising economic growth and a tight labor market, Freddie Mac expects rates will continue to rise. The impact of higher rates on purchase demand remains modest so far given the current first-time homebuyer growth.
• The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.8% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9% in October, according to the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics. Year-over-year, the index for all items like food and energy rose 4.9% over the last 12 months. These changes are the largest seen in at least 13 years. In mid-December, the Federal Reserve made their strongest move to tackle inflation, moving up the timeline for what could potentially be as many as three interest rate hikes in 2022. The Fed’s policy pivot toward inflation, and away from boosting the job market, marked a significant shift in how the Fed plans to respond to rising costs during the pandemic, according to an article from the Washington Post.
• More news on the price front, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York launched a new metric the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, which measures disruptions to supply chains. The gauge combines 27 indicators, including cross-border transportation costs and manufacturing data. The GSCPI recently indicated that the pressures on supply chains are at the highest level since at least 1997, but are exhibiting signs of peaking and might start to moderate somewhat going forward. Everyone from consumers, to builders, to the White House would welcome an ease in the aforementioned supply chain problems, as rising costs have been felt nationwide for months.
• The number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance edged higher as jobless claims totaled 207,000 last week, per the Labor Department. The latest claims data follows an encouraging labor market report from ADP. Hopefully this is consistent with the forthcoming Nonfarm Payroll figures for December, which will be a solid indicator of just how hard omicron has affected hiring. Economists expect the report to show 400,000 nonfarm payrolls added throughout last month and for the unemployment rate to drop slightly to 4.1%. Such gains would show notable improvement from November's slow growth.

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According to Walletinvestor’s Fort Collins real estate market research, home values will increase in the next 12 months. Median home values increased by 5.223% to 477290 USD, between 2020-11-30 and 2021-11-30 The average annual profit of property investment was:

• 9.257% in 2016
• 5.477% in 2017
• 4.662% in 2018
• 2.095% in 2019
• 8.665% in 2020
• 4.518% in 2021

Based on our Fort Collins City real estate market research and report the predicted sales prices will increase by 50.969% in the next 10 years. Over the last 12 months, the value of homes in Fort Collins City fluctuated: increasing 12 times and decreasing 0 times ...
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Long read but worth it... If you are a home buyer or real estate investor, Fort Collins has unquestionably established itself as one of the best long-term real estate investments in the country over the last decade. With a population of 170,243 and a median house value of $550,000, Fort Collins' housing prices are among the highest in the country, though they pale in comparison to the most expensive Colorado communities. The current metro area population of Fort Collins in 2021 is 343,000, a 1.78% increase from 2020. Fort Collins housing market trends indicate an increase of $80,000 (+ 17%) in the median home price and a – 30.3%% drop in home sales over the past year. According to NeighborhoodScout, Fort Collins real estate has appreciated by 93.87 percent over the last decade, which equates to an annual appreciation rate of 6.84 percent on average, placing Fort Collins in the top 10% of all cities in terms of real estate appreciation. However, Fort Collins' appreciation rates have lagged behind the rest of the country over the last year. Fort Collins' appreciation rate over the last twelve months has been 6.79 percent. In the most recent quarter, house appreciation rates in Fort Collins were 3.45 percent, equating to an annual appreciation rate of 14.51 percent. In comparison to the rest of Colorado, their data indicates that Fort Collins' latest annual appreciation rate is lower than 90% of the state's other cities and towns in CO. Table of Contents

• Fort Collins Housing Market Trends 2021
• Fort Collins Real Estate Market Forecast 2022
• Fort Collins Real Estate Investment Overview 2022
  • The Social Life Is Better
  • It Is Relatively Landlord-Friendly
  • Fort Collins Isn’t As Affected by Californian’s Migration

Fort Collins Housing Market Trends 2021 Fort Collins is a city located in Larimer County Colorado. It sits in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains a short distance north of Denver, Colorado. While Fort Collins is becoming a de facto suburb of Denver, it has long been the main services hub of northern Colorado. Fort Collins has had some of the highest home appreciation rates of any community in the country over the last decade. Fort Collins is a seller's market due to tight supply. Months Supply for single-family homes is just 0.6 months or 18 days. A balanced market has between four and seven months of supply. A buyer's market has a higher number, indicating that there are fewer buyers than available homes. A seller's market has a lower number, indicating that there are more buyers in relation to available properties. In October 2021, the median listing home price in Fort Collins, CO was $495K, trending up 11.2% year-over-year (source: realtor.com). The median listing home price per square foot was $241. The median home sold price was $480K. Homes in Fort Collins, CO sold for approximately the asking price on average in October.

• Larimer County is also a seller's housing market, which means that there are more people looking to ...
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New Loan Limits: FHA: Larimer County=$522,100 Weld County=    $483,000 Boulder County=$747,500 Conventional: Larimer & Weld= $647,200 Boulder County= $747,500 Denver County=   $684,250 *These loan limits have gone up a good amount, so that will allow your clients to get more home and still be able to avoid a Jumbo loan or splitting it up into 2 loans* **FHA loan limits have gone up enough to now cover a lot of the new construction going around in NOCO, where as before a lot of the new builds priced out FHA borrowers** ...
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Housing market is flatlining this Fall through Winter. Now is the time to buy. Reasons why:

• EHAP- Emergency Housing Assistance Program maximum allowance is ending this month.
• Mortgage Moritorium under pressure to act, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced a extension deadline on Aug. 3 that will last two months and is aimed at renters in areas with substantial or high spread of COVID-19. BACK RENT IS coming DUE OCTOBER 3rd. 
• Colorado has so far distributed more than $121 million in emergency rental assistance it received from various federal and state stimulus packages. But thousands of applications remain in limbo, according to data from the Department of Local Affairs.
• Many small property landlords cannot afford this back mortgage and will be listing there previous rental properties this winter.
• Listing in Fort Collins have are up ~50% this week from last week.
• Let's get you under contract during this time of landlord distress. Renter's revenge for crazy rental rates in Fort Collins!

Check out my 1st time buyer's page  Click Here and my Lenders page Click Here ...
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• Mortgage rates rose across all loan types this week as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached its highest point since June, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The 30-year fixed rate came in at 3.01% - up 13 basis points. Many factors led to this increase, including the Federal Reserve communicating that it will taper its support of the capital markets, the broadening of inflation and emerging energy supply shortages which compound other labor and materials shortages. Experts at Freddie Mac predict the rise in mortgage rates will cause home prices to moderate slightly after increasing for most of last year.
• According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales rebounded in August, recording significant gains after two prior months of declines. NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, increased by 8.1% in August. “Increased inventory of homes for sale, near historic low mortgage rates and favorable demographics means more housing demand. For the week of September 24, purchase applications are 6.3% higher than two years ago. This is a strong purchase market and the uptick in inventory is bringing back some buyers who pulled back during peak frenzy,” noted Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist with First American Financial.
• The U.S Department of Labor reported an increase of 11,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending September 25th. A caveat to this increase was an accounting error in California, which effectively double counted those shifting from recently ended federal pandemic benefits to other programs, according to the Wall Street Journal. Claims in California rose last week, but, in total fell for the rest of the country on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. The four-week moving average was 340,000 – right around the lowest levels since the beginning of the pandemic.
• Per a recent article from Market Watch, the president of the New York Federal Reserve on Monday, John Williams, predicted a bout of high U.S. inflation will mostly fade away by 2022. Although inflation is currently well above the Fed’s 2% target, Williams said he expects price pressures to ease as the pandemic fades and business returns close to normal. He admitted he did not have a precise timeline for such events, saying “this process of adjustment may take another year or so to complete as the pandemic-related swings in supply and demand gradually recede.” This comes as good news as consumer hope that current inflation is at peak levels and begins to subside moving forward.

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Weekly Mortgage Report - September 24, 2021​

• According to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey the slowdown in economic growth around the world has caused a flight to the quality of the U.S. financial markets. This has led to a rise in foreign investor purchases of U.S. Treasuries, causing mortgage rates to remain in place –clocking in at 2.86% last week, and 2.88% this week on the 30-year fixed. We will likely see mortgage rates move once the Federal Reserve implements their tapering policy that has been in discussion over the last couple of months. For now – rates are still prime for anyone who has not yet refinanced.
• Mortgage application volume was up nearly 5% last according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. “Housing demand is strong heading into the fall, despite fast-rising home prices and low inventory. The inventory situation is improving, with more new homes under construction and more homeowners listing their home for sale,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. Mortgage applications to purchase a newly built home rose unexpectedly in August, according to another report from the MBA. They usually drop in August due to seasonality, but demand appears to be coming back despite still strong price gains.
• Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 2.0% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.88 million in August, per the National Association of Realtors. "Sales slipped a bit in August as prices rose nationwide," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "Although there was a decline in home purchases, potential buyers are out and about searching, but much more measured about their financial limits, and simply waiting for more inventory."
• CoreLogic reported that soaring home prices over the past year boosted home equity wealth to new highs midway through 2021. The amount of equity in mortgaged real estate increased by $2.9 trillion in Q2 2021, an annual increase of 29.3%, according to their latest Equity Report. The average annual gain in equity was $51,500 per borrower, which was the largest average equity gain in at least 11 years and five times the gain from a year earlier.

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2x4s are now $15-16 a board - 2 years ago they were $2.50- Crazy 2020 has been a year of highs and lows for the lumber industry. Early on in 2020, when the pandemic was just starting to gain global publicity, lumber prices slumped. Starting in early March, and continuing on through mid-June, prices plummeted and held at a relatively low mark. The initial slump was a product of the global shutdown in response to the novel Corona Virus outbreak. Construction operations in most locations were shut down, and lumber mills and other processing facilities were left with an excess supply of material.  So, are you wondering what caused lumber to increase from roughly $250 per 1000 board feet to over $850 per 1000 board feet? We’ve seen some of the lowest interest rates in recent history over the past few months in the US as a response to the fragility in the economy. Low-interest rates for both home mortgages and new construction financing led to a boom in the building and remodeling industries when businesses opened their doors in June. The boom in the building/remodeling industries turned the tables on the lumber industry. Mills and other processing facilities went from having an excess supply of wood to a shortfall in what seemed like a moment’s notice. Ultimately, as the demand for lumber continued to increase over the past few months, supply has not been able to catch up, resulting in an increase in lumber’s cost by 340% or more in particular locations. ...
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